|
|
| Baseball Evaluation |
| Methodology |
|
|

The
following parameters and premises have been utilized in the development of
the Baseball Evaluation System.
1. That players with high performance values receive an
exponential increase in compensation over the average player.
This is accounted for by grading performance levels to year in
question
maximum and average values for pitchers and batters in six categories. These category values are then blended in order to
retrieve a Performance Evaluation (PEVA) value for each season with a
minimum level established for players who do not reach a threshold
level.
2. For position players, each position, due to the numbers
established for their Field Value (FV), has differing maximums and
minimums. This accounts for the fact that players at various positions
on the field are valued differently per offensive and defensive prowess. For example, ... a catcher has a higher premium on
defense than any other position on the field and will be afforded a
contract at a level higher than other positions with the
same offensive capabilities. Each position, however, can achieve
the Maximum Level (64/32) if their offensive capacity outpaces their
defensive ability. The maximum number for all positions,
including pitching, is 64, although any player who reaches a level of
32 is considered a MAXIMUM player with the number 32 used for salary
considerations.
3. Of the six categories for pitching or position players, one-third
are Opportunity Categories (i.e. player time). These two
categories form the basis for the other four categories, the underlying
girth that is built by use. If a player is used, he has value.
His ability and performance in that use fleshes out his
Performance Evaluation and value.
4. Both pitchers and position players have one Category that is
considered defensive in nature. Field Value provides that factor
for a position player. Home Runs Allowed per 9 Innings Pitched
and Strikeout to Walk Ratio provide that value for a pitcher.
These two factors, when combined, reflect a defensive category
for a pitcher since its basis does not predominantly depend on the
capability of anyone else on the field except the pitcher.
5. Salary Projections (SPRO) are calculated using a Rolling
Average of PEVA values (RAVE), its correlation with Major
League Service Time (MLST) or the Experience Equivalent (EXPEQ), and
comparison to the current minimum salary and maximum current salary.
6. PEVA and RAVE values have taken into account injuries that occurred
during those seasons, but the do not attempt to evaluate the status of
individual players as to their current health and value in upcoming
seasons. This creates a deviation when comparing actual salaries
to projected
salaries. Actual baseball salaries often do not weight, in our
opinion, past durability in a high enough manner. This may be
the largest difference between PEVA, RAVE, and SPRO values in the
Baseball Evaluation system and actual baseball salaries. However,
we did not attempt to modify this difference, as we firmly believe that
Durability is a prime consideration in value and is often later proved accurate, ...
that it should have been given greater weight as the contract plays out.
7. Salary projections also do not take into account a
team’s intention to change the use status of a player in future
years, thus decreasing or increasing his value. (For example, changing
the player from a starter to a role player or visa versa.)
|
Performance Evaluation
Categories (PEVA) |
| Pitchers |
| 1. Games Pitched or Games Started |
| 2.
Innings Pitched |
| 3. Wins or Saves or Wins Plus Saves |
4.
Walks/Hits per 9 Innings Pitched
(Modified WHIP9) |
| 5. Earned Run Average |
| 6.
Home Runs Allowed per 9 Innings Pitched and Strikeout to Walk Ratio |
| Position Players |
| 1. Games Played |
| 2.
Plate Appearances |
3.
Run Production
(Runs Scored plus
Runs Batted In) |
| 4. Slugging
Percentage |
| 5.
On Base Percentage |
6.
Field Value
Catchers (Innings or Games Played, Fielding %, Range Factor, Caught
Stealing %)
Infield (Innings or Games Played, Fielding %, Range
Factor)
Outfield (Innings or Games Played, Fielding %, Range
Factor, Assists per Game or 9 Innings Played) |
| Note1:
ERA, HR per 9 IP, and modified WHIP (Pitchers) and Run Production, OBP,
and SLG are adjusted by Park Factors. |
Fantasy Baseball
Baseball Evaluation
Rankings Cheatsheat
Great for 2008
Mock Drafts
|
Field Value Methodology
Perhaps the
most controversial factor within the Baseball Evaluation System for
position players is Field Value (FV), which denotes the value of
Fielding for each player who has performed on the playing surface for a
minimum number of innings, currently 162 innings per position (1 per
maximum game
played), or a total of 162 innings at multiple positions.
The Field Value factor does not absolutely indicate the best fielder at
any given position, although for players with a similar
number of Innings Played, it can perform that function. Field Value was
calculated in order to give the better fielder, whose performance on
the field, as well as his availability and actual use in the field,
indicated value to a team. For example, ... a great fielder who played
few innings at
the position would suffer in their Field Value, no matter the reason he
was not on the defensive field (offensive woes, injury, etc.). The
logic
being that since he played fewer defensive innings, his value to the
team
would have been lower. A poor fielder who plays many innings in the
field benefits in his Field Value from the amount of innings played,
having value in the field, even though he may not be the better fielder
than someone ranked lower. It is also possible that a good fielder who
plays for a team whose pitching prevents plays for a particular fielder
could suffer due to that factor. However, this also indicates the lack
of need for that particular team at that position and thus lowers his
value. Although the greatest value would be achieved for a
fielder with a great amount of innings over one with limited defensive
time, it is
still possible for a defensive specialist, who has played at least the
minimum number of innings or games, to be ranked well. While
their component for Innings or Games Played may be low, if that
player is a great fielder, the factors for sure-handedness (Fielding
Percentage), range (Range Factor), arm strength (Caught Stealing
Percentage for catchers and Assists per 9 Innings Played for
outfielders) will significantly enhance their Field Value.
This can also be true for a fielder with
limited range, but good hands. Although the Range Factor (Put Outs +
Assists per 9 Innings Played) contributes between 25% and 33% of each
position’s value,
a player with sure hands and a significantly high number of Innings
Played can yield an above average Field Value Factor.
A common question about the value of Fielding per contractual
obligations stems around a highly productive offensive player with few
defensive skills. The relevance of Field Value for a great offensive
player whose bat is so good no team cares about his fielding when
awarding a contract is a valid concern. The Field Value is modified by
other Offensive Numbers in the total PEVA Value to indicate a truer
picture of their value as a total player. Therefore, a great
offensive player will not be punished by a low Field Value, but a great
defensive player will be rewarded. |
| Field Values |
| Position |
Stat |
Weight |
| Catcher |
IP/GP |
25% |
|
Fielding
PCT |
25% |
|
Range
Factor |
25% |
|
Caught
Stealing % |
25% |
| Infield |
IP/GP |
33% |
|
Fielding
PCT |
33% |
|
Range
Factor |
33% |
| Outfield |
IP/GP |
25% |
|
Fielding
PCT |
25% |
|
Range
Factor |
25% |
|
Assists
Per
9 Innings Played (or Games Played) |
25% |
|
Note
1: Prior to 2000, using Games Played.
Note 2: For Catchers, the Caught Stealing Percentage used from
1960-2006. Prior to 1960, other factors reflect 33%.
Note 3: Designated Hitter position began in 1973, but does not count
toward Field Value.
Note 4: Field Value for pitchers only utilized for player whose
position player value reflects above the minimum value. |
|
|
|
| Baseball
Evaluation
and all materials on this site are the 2008 Copyright and/or
patent
pending property of JPD ECON and their licensors. All worldwide
rights reserved. The Baseball Evaluation system was developed
independently of Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball
Players Association and is not endorsed by or associated in any
way with either organization. |
|