Baseball Evaluation: The Evolution of Baseball Stats from Doubleday to Eternity

Baseball Evaluation: The Evolution of Baseball Stats from Doubleday to Eternity

Where do we start? This is the basic question when trying to explain anything, whether baseball statistics or any other endeavor, and then it is followed up closely by a second question about this particular project. What is Baseball Evaluation and how does it add, or detract, from the topic of baseball statistics? Does it really answer the question, "What are Your Favorite Players Really Worth?" over the history of the game. And when you say worth, are you talking about baseball player performance on the field or salary or a bit of both? We'll answer the last question first, ... it attempts to answer both.

Let's begin with the title. Baseball Evaluation: From Doubleday to Eternity. It is an evaluation of baseball statistics from the beginning of its pro leagues until the present day. Yes, we know that Abner Doubleday was not the only person that should be credited with its birth, but the title including others, Alexander Cartwright for one, would just be too long. So please bear with us and the title for the sake of brevity.

The Baseball Evaluation economic decision model and statistical evaluation tool provides one method for evaluating professional baseball players, both pitchers and position players, over the history of the various Major Leagues. Of course, it is not the first or the only one, and we make no illusion that it is the best. This is just one take on the subject, and we hope a comprehensive and somewhat accurate one. In the following webpages, Baseball Evaluation will explain the methodology of the system, definitions of new statistics created, and include yearly Player Values on each player. The short explanation of the method used: it is a comparison of players on a peer to peer basis, thus allowing for valid comparisons across the various decades of play, whether dead ball, live ball, or steroid ball. Beyond the yearly PEVA Values of each player, Baseball Evaluation will in the future include data for career numbers and Salary Projections over their careers as if that player were playing in today's era. You can see an example of that under the Baseball Career section.

Although individual playing statistics will be included on this site in a modest way beside the new statistics of our evaluations, this is not intended as competition to the fine work done by Sean Foreman at Baseball-Reference.com or Sean Lahman at the Baseball Archive and the Baseball Database. Check out their sites for raw historic statistics and so much more. A debt of gratitude goes out to them for their work on the statistics of baseball, as well as many others who have gone before and come after in the study of the game. It has allowed us mere mortals to add our small measure to the subject.

What will Baseball Evaluation do? What questions will it answer, or prompt into further debate? The Baseball Evaluation System is not intended to be the end result, however, it is meant to provide one tool in the ongoing debate of how to evaluate players against each other over different eras, as well as how to value their individual statistical performance into the true value to their team in the present and following years. Over six years of study of the current way teams value their players, the Baseball Evaluation system was developed to mirror, in most ways, the way a team today values its players as it relates to salary. So if a player who seems only 10% better than another gets paid 50% more, that his how the Baseball Evaluation system performs as well. Of course, there are some differences, even though it was our goal to minimize them. One such deviation is the way teams value players whose performance is waning, either due to injury or age. The Baseball Evaluation system treats those players in a harsher manner, as in many, if not most, cases, those waning performances indicate future performance with sliding stats.

And yes, the new baseball agreement that started with the 2007 season has spurred a large increase in free agent, and thus, all other salaries. The Baseball Evaluation system has been adjusted to account for this, at this time, through the 2007 salary season. For the want of a better and more comprehensive analysis, the increase seems in the range of twenty percent for most categories. And don't get us started on whether Carlos Lee was worth $16 million per year or Adam Eaton $8 million. It's doubtful that they are, but as a Phillie fan, we had been hoping to be wrong on Eaton. Unfortunately, that doesn't seem to be the case in year one. Now the question moves to the free agents of 2008. Is Torii Hunter, a good to very good player, but rarely termed great, worth $90 million over 5 years? Only time will tell, but we are doubtful to that as well.

The Baseball Evaluation system was developed to provide a comparative tool that could value position players and pitchers with an index (PEVA and RAVE) that could be used to evaluate and compare players of different years and eras. It was developed with an eye toward how players were valued over the past decade when comparing salary data to performance and experience level. Baseball Evaluation also allows for salary projections (SPRO) for not only players of the present, but the historical past.

The questions have always been many among the fan community, whether it is when a player on their team is given a new contract or allowed to go the way of free agency. It is the main question in every debate about the merits of a past player to one of the present day. The Baseball Evaluation system allows for those comparisons, as well as new debates, on Performance Evaluations and their relationships to other players and the salaries they are paid. The model was developed without attempting to deviate from current norms within the baseball community, although certain deviations were inevitable. One fact emerged right from the start. It was an expected fact. Anyone with an eye toward baseball statistics knows that a player's value per salary and public perception is an exponential quantity compared to their actual statistics. Therefore, statistics are used in the Baseball Evaluation system in a comparative fashion with peer to peer yearly reviews that maintain that exponential relationship. This comparative peer system takes away the vagaries of comparing players of different eras, whether those of the dead ball, the live ball, or the steroid ball. Statistics are also not viewed in static terms, with, for example, a home run worth the same in 1870 as 1970. For a list of the comparative statistics used, see Baseball Evaluation: Methodology. In essense, the Baseball Evaluation System was developed to answer questions and provide new comparative statistics, although we realize that as many questions as it may answer, it likely raises even more.

Questions that Prompted Baseball Evaluation's Development

A Baseball Statistics Model for Baseball Historians,
Fantasy Baseball Players, and Baseball Fans Everywhere

What are your team's players really worth?

Was a favorite player from the 1950s actually better than one from today?

Does waning statistical performance, whether due to injury or not, indicate a continuing trend, or should this be discounted when accounting for salary and payroll?

Who deserves to make into the Baseball Hall of Fame?

Questions that Prompted Baseball Evaluation's Development

Baseball Evaluation and all materials on this site are the 2008 Copyright and/or patent pending property of JPD ECON and their licensors. All worldwide rights reserved. The Baseball Evaluation system was developed independently of Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association and is not endorsed by or associated in any way with either organization.